I couldn’t have said it better myself - my company McGuire Real Estate came out with this recent post on the San Francisco, Marin, and Peninsula real estate market. We need more data specific to the area…the newspapers cover the Bay Area region and don’t have the bandwidth to get specific to our local city.  You would never know that several properties are selling quickly and over the asking price. Read on…

McGuire Assets Newlsetter…April 2008…

Everyday we see articles chronicling the collapse of the housing market and simultaneously hear anecdotal stories of multiple offers and properties selling for over the asking price. So which scenario is correct? Is it a buyers’ market? Is it a sellers market? Are home values declining or increasing? The short answer is yes. The Bay Area real estate market is a highly segmented marketplace; some areas are struggling while others continue to thrive. In some sub-markets there is very little inventory, which continues to push prices higher; while others are flooded with available homes and not enough buyers.

In San Francisco, the median price for single-family homes increased 23.74% to $1,237,000 in the 1st quarter of 2008 versus the same period in 2007, while the average days on market decreased 9.78% to 35 days. However, these strong gains can be deceptive due to a number of factors. For example, several neighborhoods reported extremely strong gains, but because of the small number of transactions they are not statistically relevant and skew the results for the overall market. These neighborhoods include Golden Gate Heights, Lower Pacific Heights, Haight/Ashbury, and Russian Hill. With that in mind many neighborhoods reported strong gains and a significant number of sales with Glen Park (42%; $1,250,000), Noe Valley (31.90%; $1,625,000), and Marina (21.63%; $2,382,500) leading the list. These gains were balanced by decreased median prices in Ingleside (-28.54; $566,000), Oceanview (-28.06; $502,500), and Potrero Hill (-23.60; $955,000).

In the condominium category in San Francisco, the median sales price increased a modest 2.68% to $729,000 and the average days on market decreased 3.93% to 41 days.  Cow Hollow (82.04%), Western Addition (74.65%), Noe Valley (51.84%), and Telegraph Hill (44.09%) showed the largest increases. However, these gains were primarily buoyed by restricted inventory and a reduction in the number of sales, e.g. Noe Valley and Telegraph Hill reported a 66% and 73% drop in the number of sales, respectively. Just to keep things interesting, however, the Western Addition reported a 50% increase in the number of sales, further demonstrating that there is no single answer to explain the growth within San Francisco’s housing market.   

In Marin County, the median sales price for single family dwellings remained flat, decreasing a modest 0.98% to $959,000. The strongest areas of appreciation were San Geronimo (56.37%; $797,500), Ross (44.33%; $2,800,000), and Larkspur (40.35%; $1,824,000). Greenbrae increased 41.76%, but with an 82.61% decline in the number of sales to just 4, it is not statistically relevant. The only decreases in median price were in areas with too few sales to be statistically relevant. All of Southern Marin reported increases in the median sales price with Tiburon (34.50%; $2,690,000) and Belvedere (26.32%; $3,300,000) leading the list. Southern Marin also saw a decline in the average days a home is on the market, decreasing 29.68% to 72 days. For the county as a whole, the average number of days on market decreased 4.3% to 79 days.

In the condominium category in Marin, the median sales price decreased just 2.63% to $550,125 during the 1st quarter of 2008. The strongest areas of appreciation were Mill Valley (8.79%; $715,000) and Greenbrae (7.42%; $517,750). It is important to note that the number of condominium sales decreased 43.75% to just 72 sales in the entire county, making the majority of the intercity analysis statistically irrelevant. The average number of days on market also increased dramatically, rising 11% to 84 days.   

San Mateo County saw similar trends with the median price for single-family homes increasing 1.12% to $900,000 in the 1st quarter of 2008 versus the same period last year, while the average days on market increased 23.18% to 60 days. In the condominium category, the median sales price decreased 9.48% to $525,000 and the average days on market increased 22.29% to 65 days.

Aldo Congi, vice president for McGuire Downtown said, “Inventory has been very limited during the 1st quarter of 2008, which is reflected in the relatively low days on market and the increasing median sales price. Well-priced listings continue to receive multiple offers—indicating that buyers are out there. However, inventory is beginning to increase these past few weeks, which given the number of buyers currently in the market, should lead to a spike in the number of sales and in the median prices in the 2nd quarter.”

If you would like information on a specific district or category, please contact me. I’m happy to assist you and help you to better understand this fast-paced, ever changing market.

All information deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. All data subject to errors, omissions, or revisions and is not warranted. Data provided by San Francisco Association of Realtors, BAREIS MLS, and REInfo Link.

www.jenndavis.com

Earth Day and Eco Tuesday came together last week (4/22) at the W Hotel. The Keynote speaker was Brian Gitt, the CEO of Build It Green (www.builditgreen.org), a non profit dedicated to promoting healthy, energy, and resource-efficient buildings in California.

Brian is a charismatic speaker and simply captivated the room of green enthusiasts. Brian is an example of starting with an idea of how to ‘green California buildings’ and running with it to become something larger than originally thought possible. What began as Build It Green’s ’voluntary guidelines’ for developers and architects building green real estate soon morphed into these same groups *clamoring* for more information.  Today, he is beseiged with requests for his knowledge, training, guidance and personal presentations to educate this rapidly growing community.  I think we’ve just scratched the surface. Thanks to people like Brian Gitt and organizations such as www.builditgreen.org we can really make some positive change in our communities.

www.jenndavis.com

sanfranoaklandfremontcawealthgain

Coming from the National Association of Realtors, I thought this would be interesting to all home buyers and sellers!

www.jenndavis.com

jdavis@mcguire.com

The San Francisco real estate market has its peak and valleys. Clearly the valleys are not as deep or devastating as the outlying areas of San Francisco, and we are quite blessed to be living and owning real estate in this city.  Of course, there are certain neighborhoods in the city that may be a bit more weatherbeaten than others, but take heart. The longer you own, the better off you are. The attached chart demonstrates what can happen over several cycles.  You can see the overall pace of growth of single family homes for past 30 years in San Francisco.

sf_single_family_dwellings_1970-20071

Everything goes in cycles.  Buy for the long term. Just think what your home could be worth 30 years from today!

Stay tuned for more stats on property sales.

www.jenndavis.com

jdavis@mcguire.com

San Francisco’s South of Market is rapidly evolving into a hot neighborhood.  As quoted in today’s San Francisco Chronicle, ‘South of the Slot’ was the original name of this industrial area located on the wrong side of the cable car tracks.  Today over 50 residential projects have been completed and many of the buyers are in high tech or finance.  What can explain the growth of this area in spite of the housing woes across the country? 

Richard Florida, author of ‘The Rise of the Creative Class’ has recently come out with the book “Who’s Your City?” This book is also covered in this recent SF Chronicle article. He states that it is the creative class that has driven our economy. San Francisco and Silicon Valley are home to some of the most brilliant entrepreneurs, scientists and artists.  Florida’s argument is that it is where you live that fuels this kind of creativity which is counter intuitive to our growing global economy.  One may believe that we can remain connected and productive anywhere in the world thanks to the internet, but ‘megaregions’ such as the Bay Area are central to this kind of innovation.

I recently read ‘Bowling Alone - Collapse and Revival of the American Community’ .  He writes in depth about the decline in social networks that tied communities together such as bowling leagues, church outings, monthly picnics and more .  People are feeling disconnected from their families and communities and the impact is a decline in education, creativity, and our overall happiness.  Perhaps the draw to the new and improved ‘South of the Slot’ aka ‘SOMA’ is the pull of social connectedness in a community that fosters creativity. I look forward to the new residents of this neighborhood.

 http://www.jenndavis.com/

jdavis@mcguire.com

Jenn

Straight from my company, I thought I’d share the summary of activity in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo over the last quarter…

A small 3BR,  2BA, 1175 square foot home needing *everything* just received 29 offers. The home is located at 1851 26th Avenue, a very peaceful street in the Sunset. The home has outstanding views and clearly a lot of potential as 29 other people have confirmed.

 Opportunities abound!

 www.jenndavis.com

Having worked for a newspaper many years ago, (The Washington Post), I know the value of a great headline to draw in readers.  For many months now, we have seen headline after headline about the looming housing crisis in the Bay Area (and across the country). Challenging to find optimistic news unless one is willing to weed through the data highlighted in these articles. On Sunday, the San Francisco Chronicle ran a piece on San Francisco neighborhoods http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/11/BUEIT8TIB.DTL. Some neighborhoods are still hot and receiving multiple offers especially if the home has been well maintained, staged, and updated or remodeled (and, or course, priced competitively). 

Full disclosure, I have a listing coming on the market in the Sunset.  A single family home, well maintained, recent upgrades, staged, and a view property to boot (and in a great neighborhood).  Check back here for updates on this property and other neighborhood sales activities.

 www.jenndavis.com  

Gavin Newsom today appointed Rick Swig as the new head of the San Francisco Redevelopment Agency. The Redevelopment Agency is responsible for improving the environment of the city and to create better living urban living conditions throught the removal of blight.  The San Francisco Board of Supervisors designate what areas are redevelopment projects.

 To date, these areas include, but are not limited to,  South Beach, South of Market, Mission Bay, Transbay, Hunters Point, Western Addition, the Federal Office Building.  The momentum in these areas is significant and my support goes to Rick Swig.

 For a complete list of Redevelopment Projects, go to http://sfgov.org/site/sfra_index.asp?id=4529.

www.jenndavis.com

The American Planning Association voted North Beach to be one of the 10 Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco. Wow. It is one of the most vibrant neighborhoods with a strong community base, gorgeous architecture and noone can ignore the myriad of restaurants, pubs, and coffee shops. You can start your day by having breakfast at one of the tasty Italian bakeries and end your day with a nightcap at Tosca (where you may be lucky enough to rub elbows with the likes of Sean Penn).

 So what is the real estate like in North Beach?

According to recent stats on the San Francisco MLS, 46 condos have sold in North Beach since January ‘07 at an average sales price of $828,000. North Beach is selling at 100.65% of the original list price.  The average sales price in ‘06 was under $800,000. Not bad. Slump?

I welcome your comments on what it is like to live in North Beach!

www.jenndavis.com