Alan Mark and his company represented the sales of all of the above buildings in the South Beach and SOMA areas of San Francisco and many more since his company was founded 11 years ago. So I was dying to hear his perspective on the sales activity in the South Beach area that night.

What did he say? He said that within 2 years he sees us with a shortage of inventory in South Beach. Why? New construction loans are extremely tough to get these days. But let’s say an entity was fortunate enough to get a loan. Getting the entitlements to the land is another time-consuming hurdle that could take years. Then there’s the time it takes to build.

What is available today in new construction? As of February 2010:

• Only 14 units are left at The Infinity
• One Hawthorne is going to open soon with just 119 units
• The Montgomery is sold out, and
• The Arterra is also close to being sold out

If an entity gets that new construction loan and the entitlements to build, it could be up to 10 years before the building would be complete and ready for sale.

Realtors get accused of being overly optimistic. So I’m not going to make any recommendations; I’m just reporting this is what Alan Mark sees on the horizon. He’s pretty credible in my book. Like I said, think The Infinity, St. Regis, The Brannan, 200 Brannan, One Hawthorne….

Pricing can only be estimated right now as ranging from the $400,000s to $2,000,000. And pricing will be key. The South Beach and SOMA developments that listened and responded to the market in 2009 were rewarded with plenty of buyers. For example: The Infinity has less than 50 units available after selling an average of 40 homes a month (making it one of the top selling development in the country) One Rincon states to be 80 percent sold out . Other nearby developments such as The Montgomery have only a few unit left for sale.

One Hawthorne is positioned well as an alternative to the larger towers in South Beach and SOMA: Located on a quiet(er) historic block in Downtown San Francisco.  A rooftop garden for residents.  A new restaurant Benu (from the former chef de cuisine of French Laundry) is opening right on Hawthorne Lane. 

As the debate continues on whether or not we have hit the bottom of the market and starting a recovery, the sales at One Hawthorne will be an exciting indicator. It is looking to be a gorgeous development with the best of the city’s amenities. One Hawthorne will a welcome beginning to 2010.

Just 6-8 months ago the conversation about the market began with ‘How much worse can it get?’  Today, the conversation begins with ‘There are signs of a recovery’.

Earlier this week Bernanke said the deep recession that’s gripped the US economy is “very likely over at this point.” A recent survey conducted by the City Business Journals Network, an alliance with the Business Times, stated that over half of small to mid-sized business owners feel that their prospects will be a lot better in the next 12 months. That is a sizeable increase when just five months ago only a third of business owners felt optimistic about their prospects.

I took a look at recent sales in the MLS (Multiple Listing Service). In San Francisco, from January 1, 2009 through June 30, 2009, 1417 homes were sold or an average of 236 homes per month. From July 1 until now (less than 3 months), 884 homes have been sold or an average of 294 homes per month. That is an increase of 58 homes sold each month. Optimism fuels a recovery just as pessimism fuels a downturn.

I expect we will have a very active fall in San Francisco. Buyers are feeling that optimism and writing more offers. Serious sellers are more acclimated to the current environment and are willing to price their homes to meet the market. Of course, there are also sellers that quickly turn in to buyers as some are willing to take a bit of a loss on their current home and trade up into a larger home to recoup their investment!

Do you fall in one of these categories? Call me today to discuss your needs or if you want more detail about your neighborhood. Enjoy the San Francisco Indian Summer!

jdavis@mcguire.com

www.jenndavis.com

The filing period is between July 2nd – September 15th, 2009. If your appeal is approved by the assessor’s office, you could benefit from the tax reduction for the period of July 1, 2009-June 30th, 2010. You will need sales comparables to support your claims.  Let me know if I can be of assistance!

San Francisco property tax appeal information

Jenn Davis

jdavis@mcguire.com

Who would have thought that just last year San Francisco was considered #24 as the best place to invest in real estate? Now in 2009, it has moved up to position #6. This is the year for playing it safe, not investing in creative or far flung opportunities.

The City by the Bay has always been a destination city with international appeal. Only 7×7 miles…the traditional rules of supply and demand apply in this gorgeous city of ours.

For investment opportunities, click here for my info or send me an email at jdavis@mcguire.com.

Jenn

http://cbs5.com/video/?id=47401@kpix.dayport.com 

Email me, Jenn Davis,  for more information jdavis@mcguire.com

The next hot property this week is a condo at 3553 Divisadero @ North Point. 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths on two levels! Hey, and 2 car parking to boot! This dynamite deal is listed for $1,,275,000. I’ve got the details! jdavis@mcguire.com

Finally, in Pacific Heights there is a great 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo located at 256 Presidio at Clay. It is one of (or if not the only) condo in the building with deeded outdoor garden. Listed for $789,000.

Deals to be had! jdavis@mcguire.com

Contact me for details jdavis@mcguire.com.

Obama’s Federal Stimulus Plan:

 $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers (have not owned a
home in the past three years);

Applies to any primary residence (new construction or previously
owned, but not second homes or investment property), purchased between
January 1, 2009, and November 30, 2009;

Up to modified adjusted gross income less than $95,000 for single taxpayers and
$170,000 for married taxpayers;

Still eligible for the credit, even if overall tax liability is
insufficient to cover the amount of the tax credit;

Must live in the residence for a minimum of three years, or the credit
will have to be repaid.

California State Plan:

 $10,000 state tax credit, spread out over three years;

Applies to anyone (first-time or previous home owners) buying a
primary residence (i.e. not second homes or investment property),
between March 1, 2009, and March 1, 2010;

New construction only (i.e. not previously owned or occupied);

No income limit on the credit, but overall tax liability must equal or
exceed the amount of the tax credit;

Must live in the residence for a minimum of two years, or the credit
will have to be repaid;

$100,000,000 has been set aside for this credit, to be allocated to
the first 10,000 eligible home buyers who apply, on a
first-come-first-served basis.

New construction in San Francisco such as the Infinity, One Rincon, Millenium, Blu, The Montgomery…so many choices and a lot of options!

Why wait?

www.jenndavis.com

jdavis@mcguire.com

The Chronicle article  states that Pelosi supports the bill and it is expected to pass the House.  Some much needed relief!

jdavis@mcguire.com

www.jenndavis.com